What Really Counts?

How do you do it today?

What really counts in this age of digitization, dehumanization and automation? Is the lowest “price” always the lowest cost? How do you define “customer relations” in the digital age? Does management know how to measure value in this world where variables are occasionally beyond actual or affordable control? What happens when custom products are priced as commodities? Does your supplier (who really is NOT your partner) promise you anything, then apologize later? Does your the new buyer/manager at one of your major customers suddenly ask for all of your quality-shipping records back to day 1 because years after nearly perfect performance you were short a few boards on a 1,000 piece delivery while he places the next release with a competitor of yours? (They are really NOT your “partner” either!)

Is there any loyalty left in the digital age? What do the new screen watchers, bloggers, and social media members value? Are we all scrambling for pennies while the dollars end up in the coffers of a few very large corporations?

Does EIT’s chapter 11 filing coupled with the announcement of negotiations to buy its remains signal the end of whatever American high-tech volume PWB leadership remains in America? It joins the long-gone leading domestic innovative volume board makers: Methode, Burroughs, IBM, Collins Radio, UNIVAC, DEC, Autonetics, Hewlett-Packard, Photocircuits, AT&T/Western Electric, Bureau of Engraving, Stromberg Carlson, and others.

Semiconductor forecasts for the next 1-2 years are strong (20+%), but how will they affect the PWB industries? Will advanced fabricators, such as AT&S and Unimicron, start making 2.5D packaging substrates? Will the other packaging companies follow Amkor’s lead? Will CAMEST help keep all informed of the seemingly endless choices and gaps that face the assembly and packaging service providers? How will new materials fit in? The biggest  increases will be in China, Europe, and Korea. Korea declined more than 20% in capital spending for chip production equipment  in 2012. Taiwan will remain the biggest buyer of new equipment at with a spend of more than $10 billion according to SEMI. This bodes well for those still building substrates and PWBs in 2014.*

‘Follow the Money’

Although all the presentations and keynote speakers at the Electronic System Technologies Conference in Las Vegas in May were of value, interesting and well-presented to those who attended the various tracks, several caught my attention as being especially worthy of further pursuit. One was the apparent strength of 2.5D solution among a variety of packaging challenges and options. The other, which affects all of the members and segments of the microelectronic supply chain in pursuit of the future and funding, was the stated need for a new business model. R&D and manufacturing funds, profit margins, consolidations, time-to-market have all served to squeeze everybody’s budgets, cash flows and bottom lines, save one group — the OEMs. The advice given was to “follow the money.” Bringing the OEMs back deeper into the supply chain equation may be the only practical solution to selecting and funding future commercially viable solutions — both large and small.

How does one stay linked to the technology changes that blur the clear definitions of various segments of the electronic packaging industries? Please note that I said “industries,” not industry. Will they all wind up the purview of a handful of giant corporations and organizations? How will one find new promising technologies that apply? How will these be funded to get beyond the alpha demonstration or beta stages? Who will adopt and sponsor those that are not yet finished items to which standards can be developed or applied, e.g., process or breakthrough proprietary materials, or production or test/inspection equipment. (I am personally  aware of several that have demonstrated proof or principle, moved beyond the alpha stage, or are just preparing for scaled up production. These are in jeopardy of languishing into oblivion as “no one” wants to invest in “Western” inventions in the PCB or PCBA industry during the current economic malaise.) There is still a prevailing attitude of “I tried that” for advancements in prior technologies that may now make them commercially viable. Perhaps some answers may be found at the CAMEST formation meeting or the proposed resurrection and reconstitution of the TMRC.

Are you following Charlie Barnhart’s columns on EMS, ODM and OEM trends and business? His recent publication on 10 global trends confronting OEM operations is fascinating and chock full of ideas and stimuli for those working on strategies to move forward in the rapidly changing marketplace. Of note is his perspective, with which we agree, on the rate of increasing labor costs in China, slowing growth of outsourcing to EMS companies, unprecedented risk in supply chain sourcing, and shorter demand cycles. He states that OEMs have fewer resources. This applied to more than just OEMs. It includes suppliers of manufacturing equipment. This also provides ne opportunities for creative planning and actions.