It’s a slowdown, but not a meltdown.

That’s what Sherri Scribner from Deutsche Bank is forecasting for the second half of 2011.

In a research note today, she says their checks suggest “near-term demand is slightly softer than prior expectations, although weakness in telecom, networking, servers and storage had been well telegraphed heading into the quarter.” Optical appears “stalled” due to overinventories but second-half forecasts are strong.

Most companies have not been hurt by Japan, and even automotive is expected to “recover significantly” later this year, she writes.

My concern with all this is that for the past decade, slowdowns in EMS have been dramatic, not soft. We have lived through boom-bust cycles since 1995.

Not trying to be a pessimist here; just melding the data with the history.