RoHS, Six Years After

Folks,

I was at IPC Apex Expo the other week.  San Diego is a great venue for the show, but I always forget how cold it can be (55°-65°F) this time of year.

While at the show, I was interviewed on lead-free reliability and its cost for consumer electronics. These are topics I think about often, so let’s discuss them a bit. First, let’s consider reliability.  RoHS was enacted on July 1, 2006, more than 6 ½ years ago. Each year more than $1 trillion worth of electronics are made, therefore, in this period of time, something over $3 trillion worth of consumer electronics have been manufactured. There have been no “the sky is falling”-type of reliability issues in this time. How can I say this? Well, my office at the Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth is across the hall from the IT (information Technology) Dept. They purchase all the millions of dollars worth of PCs, printers, displays etc. that Thayer uses. Several years ago (say early 2011) I stopped by when most of the department was in and cheerfully asked if the reliability of the equipment they purchase has gone down since lead-free assembly was enacted. They asked me in unison, “What’s lead-free assembly.” After I explained what lead-free assembly was, they confirmed that they have noticed no changes in reliability. Since RoHS, my family has purchase about 100+ electronic devices, a few have had reliability problems, about as many as in the past. Most were attributed to hard drive fails. Of the scores of friends and colleagues I have, no one has ever commented that they have noticed an increase in electronics fails. So, my conclusion is that consumer product reliability is not “practically” worse if my family and  these many  other folks haven’t noticed it.

I have made an informal study of reliability data of lead-free vis-a-vis tin-lead solders published in papers. A statement from Rockwell Collins’ JCAA/JGF-PP No Lead solder Project: -55C-125C Thermal Cycle Testing Final Report  sums up my overview conclusion nicely: “Test vehicles assembled with lead-free materials (notably tin-silver-copper) exhibited lower reliability under some test conditions.”  Naysayers might be quick to suggest that this statement says that lead-free is no good. However, the statement could be reworded to say: “In considerably more than half of the test conditions, test vehicles assembled with lead-free materials had higher reliability.” Counting the comparisons in the Rockwell-Collins paper shows lead-free better in 51 cases, tin-lead better in 31 cases, and one draw. However, it is disturbing that a small percentage of lead-free assembled test vehicles had much much worse reliability than tin-lead test vehicles. This later information makes me believe that lead-free is not yet ready for mission-critical, high-reliability, long-life products. These small numbers of much poorer reliability assemblies must be understood and corrected before lead-free is ready for mission-critical prime time. The much shorter lifecycle of today’s consumer electronics may also mask this concern.

What about cost? I don’t at all want to minimize the expense that many went through to go lead-free and RoHS compliant. In about 2007, one of our colleagues estimated that it cost the electronics industry $20 billion to become RoHS compliant. I think this number is low, but, from a consumer’s perspective, there has been no cost hardship. The price of a PC continued to go down during and after RoHS implementation, as shown in the figure below. While performing my non-scientific survey of co-workers, family, and friends on reliability, I also asked about cost. All agreed, electronics are cheaper than ever.

 

Challenges still exist, even in consumer electronics with the Head-in-Pillow, Graping, non wet opens, and other defects.  However, we can all purchase lead-free, RoHS compliant products at a reasonable cost and reliability.

 

Cheers,

Dr. Ron

The source for the image is :http://thomaslah.wordpress.com/2010/02/03/apple-and-intel-defying-gravity/

 

Best Wishes,

Dr. Ron

Unplugged

Another federal energy investment has gone South — no, make that West.

Lithium ion batteries have been in the news again following Boeing’s highly publicized Dreamliner battery difficulties. China’s Wanxiang Group has received clearance from the US Committee on Foreign Investment to acquire the assets of America’s battery maker A123 for $257 million. The bankrupt A123, which makes batteries for electric cars and grid storage, was the recipient of $130 million of clean energy federal grants. The Wanxiang Group is an auto parts conglomerate.

Shen Tsai-Sheng of one of the world’s largest PCB makers, Unimicron Technology, stated that utilization rates of Unimicron’s HDI board, PCB, and flexible PCB (FPCB) production will fall below 75% of capacity in the first quarter of 2013, down from 85% to 95% in the 4th quarter of 2012.

Huawei sold 10.8 million smart phones in the 4th quarter of 2012 to become the world’s 3rd largest seller. Samsung was first with 63.7 million and Apple was 2nd with 47.8 million. ZTE, another China maker, shipped 9.5 million units in the last quarter of 2012.

Will the “bounce” last? China’s economy has bounced back. A return to accelerating growth in the fourth quarter 2012 breaks seven straight quarters of declining growth and draws a line under concerns that the world’s second largest economy is heading for a hard landing.
To engineer the rebound, China’s government turned again to boosting credit and investment spending. But beneath the surface, there were also signs a rebalancing toward consumption may be underway.

ASL had its second best year in 2012 and forecasts sales at least as good in 2013. The number one IC lithograph projection printer supplier in the world, headquartered in Holland, has about 80% of the market for advanced exposure equipment (including for 300mm wafers).

An interesting note from the massive CES (Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas this month was the seemingly widespread appearance of nanotechnology coatings to “moisture proof” just about anything.

Updated PWB charts showing use of build up boards and thin PWBs by application in Japan are now available. These have been created and maintained annually by Masamitsu (Matt) Aoki. Several have been published in the Printed Circuit Journal of Japan. Write to us if you would like a copy.

Back to the Future. The “Assembly Processes for Lead Free and Tin-Lead” free BUZZ session at the IPC Apex event in San Diego Feb. 19 chaired by Raymond E. Pritchard Hall of Fame member Don DuPriest has been renamed BZ2 Hall of Famers: Roundtable Discussion. It’s format will be an “open-end” panel discussion by Hall of Fame (HoF) members related to all aspects of the electronic interconnect industry.  The panel, including Bob Neves, Dan Feinberg, Jack Fisher, Vern Solberg, and myself will field questions from the audience ranging from technology, to business, to future changes and requirements, to reshoring. Chairman DuPriest will provide surprise gifts to audience members that ask questions.

New “Kid on the Block.” Taiwan’s MediaTek, which introduced its first chipset in 2011 in a Lenovo phone, has in 18 short months captured 50% of China’s market for smartphone chips. Its chipsets are reported to have greatly reduced the cost and time for manufacturers to introduce new phones to the marketplace.  As a result, the top five producers in China during the third quarter Coolpad, Huawei, Lenovo, Samsung and ZTE. Apple was 6th with just 8% of the market. MediaTek offers guidance on hot to build a phone with its chips. as a result its chips are showing up in new brands in emerging markets in Latin America and India.

Nissan will assemble its new Leaf electric motor in the USA this year for the 2013 Nissan LEAF car to be built in Smyrna, TN. Currently all of Nissan’s electric motors are put together in Japan.

In Their Element

One of the truly fun diversions of the electronics manufacturing community has been the ongoing Friday Element Quiz on the IPC TechNet email listserv.

For nearly two years, a few clues have been posited to the TechNet members each week, who then try to guess the corresponding element. (No element was repeated.)

The quiz was the brainchild of Dave Hillman, an engineer at Rockwell Collins and one of the longtime contributors to the listserv. Each week, Hillman (with the help of a few reference manuals), poses a question to the group. For example:

This element has no biological role for humans. History shows that the mineral containing this element was encountered in silver mines in the Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the Middle Ages and was give a name that is the combination of the words “ill luck” and deceiver” because it was found to have no use. This element plays a significant role in industry today in several different industry segments and is more abundant that tin in the Earth’s crust. What element is being described?*

For those not keeping track, the first winner was Lamar Young of SCS Coatings; the most recent was Hillman’s colleague Doug Pauls. Over the 96 weeks the quiz has run, there have been several repeat winners. The leaders to date are Dr. Bev Christian of RIM, who has picked the correct answer eight times, nosing out Leland Woodall of CSTech, who has correctly named seven elements.

Given there are 112 elements, the FEQ should be winding down. By popular demand, however, Hillman has stocked up on new reference books and pledges to start over.

Let the good times roll.

*The element is Uranium (U).

 

Public Data

I was pleasantly surprised this morning to receive a note from IPC indicating a change to its data collection methods.

In an announcement touting its new market research subscription series, IPC said it would use aggregate company data along with “carefully vetted secondary research.”

That sounded like IPC would now use data from the publicly traded EMS companies to help flesh out numbers its participating members report. A quick inquiry to IPC director of market research Sharon Starr confirmed as much.

“The growth rates reported each month will be based on IPC’s survey sample, but we will be looking at published data from the publicly traded EMS companies as a cross-check and may also use this data in our market-size calculations. If growth rates from the publicly-traded companies differ significantly from what our survey participants are telling us, we will address that in the reports,” Sharon told me.

This represents a departure from the past 20 years, where IPC would rely only on the data directly reported by survey participants. For years, report after report showing various manufacturers’ monthly sales numbers would arrive on an unsecure fax machine in the IPC office. Eventually, that fax was moved to someone’s office, but there was little in the way of confidentiality offered, and even if the the reporting company used a unique code, its name on the top of the fax always gave it away. As companies went public and disclosures became more scrutinized, there was a real disincentive for manufacturers to submit monthly data. Over the years, this trend undermined the usefulness of the IPC data: if larger companies weren’t reporting, were the figures as published truly representative?

Parsing the publicly traded firm’s quarterly numbers will go a long way toward ensuring that the data reflect the macro industry trends.

 

Foxconn Moves Intriguing

There is a lot of speculation regarding Apple’s stated intent to build a manufacturing site in the US. This is not a major move. Only 200 jobs will be created. I cannot help but wonder if this is related to Foxconn’s (Apple’s major supply-chain device manufacturer) recent offer to help train Americans in manufacturing technologies. Is there a greater strategy about to be implemented? Is it the precursor to a potentially much larger move as costs continue to rise in China? America is still the major market for Apple where new products are introduced. Do Tim Cook and Terry Gou have a larger strategic plan? As Sherlock might say to Watson, “Methinks a new game is afoot.”

The November contraction of the US manufacturing sector does not bode well for the domestic electronics industry. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the index declined to the lowest level in three years, as national factory activity fell to 49.5% in November from 51.7% in October. Expectations had been for a level of 51.3%. Levels below 50% indicate a contraction. These figures are reflected in recent IPC book-to-bill ratios. The news in Japan is also discouraging for that nation’s interconnect industries. The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed negative growth for the country’s electronic industry in September. Not only is board production dropping, but so are board prices. Panasonic and Sharp have lost market share and are experiencing heavy losses, according to DKN Research. JX Nippon Oil & Energy (a major metal and oil supplier) has decided to close its PV silicon wafer business due to extreme global price competition. Uncertainty seems to reign everywhere. Many strategists are now working on improving efficiencies, finding new markets, and a resumption of growth in 2013.

For Americans, too? More cooperative activities reducing redundancy is needed between the IPC and the EIPC.

The EIPC made following announcement on Dec. 3: The EIPC has made an effort to provide the latest information on Standards for PCBs from Japan. The 4th edition was released at the JPCA Show in June 2011. The EIPC is encouraging the specialists in the European Electronic Industry to learn the knowledge that has been accumulated by the Japan Electronics Packaging and Circuits Association (JPCA) and documented in the Standard on Device Embedded Substrate Terminology Reliability Test/Design Guide Edition 4.0- JPCA-EB01 (2011) The English version of the document is on stock at the EIPC office in Maastricht, The Netherlands.

Associations in Agreement

Taiwan’s Vice President Wu (tallest man, center of photo) welcomed visitors and took part in the ribbon-cutting ceremony for the TPCA Show held in conjunction with the IMPACT 2012 event in Taipei. Second from the right is IPC CEO and president John Mitchell.

The TPCA and the JPCA signed a Memorandum of Understanding at the Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center on Oct. 25 to highlight industrial cooperation in a practical and efficient way. The TPCA organized an Alliance Seminar held in conjunction with the endorsement. This followed the Advance Technology Forum alliance event of this past July. The activity is supported by Taiwan’s Economic Department. Approval of funding was announced after the signing.

IMPACT 2012 was jointly organized by IEEE CPMT-Taipei, iMAPS-Taiwan, ITRI and the TPCA, and co-organized by IDB-Ministry of Economic Affairs, I-Shou University, NanKang IC Design Incubation Center. SMTA, and TTMA. IMPACT (International Microsystems, Packagiing, Assembly and Circuits Technology Conference) attracted 190 papers from 14 countries.

The TPCA held a special breakfast presentation in which an update on the industry in Japan (PCB domestic production down 45+% from its peak in 2007 as offshore manufacturing increased) by Dr. Hayao Nakahara of NTI and the industry status in Thailand presented by Bancha Ongkosit, chairman and managing director of KCE Electronics. The latter stated that Thailand lacks supply chain infrastructure and that he no longer buys from the US. He pointed out the growth of automotive electronics, stating that virtually every major car company as set up there, and that Thailand exports about 3.5 million vehicles per year. He also stated that the growth of organic substrate replacement for ceramic based electronic circuits for vehicles will continue to increase rapidly.

America’s Interdyne Systems, a new fabrication equipment entry debuted its revolutionary new concept for the mechanical drilling of 75 micron holes. Taiwan Kong King (TKK) celebrated its 35th Anniversary at the show.

It’s a Collaborative World After All
Rumors persist that an announcement of a new collaborative activity between the IPC and iNEMI is imminent.

Lenovo, the world’s second largest PC producer, will start production of its Think brand notebooks in the US next year at its fulfillment center in North Carolina. Lenovo acquired IBM’s PC division (original producer of the Think PC) in 2005. Last month Lenovo announced the acquisition of Brazil’s PC maker Comercio de Component Electronicos.

Taiwan’s intelligence chief warned that one in every three Taiwanese companies based on the mainland are facing closure due to rapidly falling profits, according to Agence France-Presse in Taipei. Another 30% are also reported to be struggling on the mainland. Last year the island’s authorities approved 575 mainland investments totaling $13.1 billion.

SMTAI-IPC Midwest Pact a Long Time Coming

John Mitchell is putting his money where his mouth is.

As the new IPC president, installed just this spring, had made clear in multiple conversations we’ve had, he takes adding value for customers seriously, and he looks for ways various associations can coalesce.

That vision became reality yesterday when Mitchell took to the dais at the SMTA International trade show to announce the two groups would colocate their respective fall shows starting in 2013.

Under terms of the agreement, which remains to be signed, IPC will hold its semiannual standards committee meetings at the SMTAI show in Ft. Worth, TX, next October. IPC will retain its IPC Midwest brand, but the decision effectively tables, for now at least, the Chicago area trade show IPC has sponsored for the past several years.

It’s a welcome change from the past decade, during which something of a Cold War formed between the two dominant North American industry electronics trade groups as each competed for the minds (and bodies) of assembly engineers.

While acknowledging that some wrinkles could still remain, most of the folks we spoke with in Orlando this week are supportive of the move. Many IPC committee members are also regular presenters at the much-lauded SMTAI technical conference, and this allows them to reduce their fall travel. Moreover, it will cut costs for some exhibitors that have tried to pull double duty in the past.

It says here SMTA, which has been burned by colocation arrangements in the past, deserves a mountain of credit for putting aside any bad feelings for the good of its members. And IPC, in particular Mitchell, should be lauded for recognizing that success is not a zero-sum game, and that win-win relationships are possible even among trade associations.

Passively Annoying

Passive components can be kind of offensive sometimes. I can understand them in analog circuits or charge pumps. But the fact that we need to put them all over our digital logic is just rude. Technically, I understand why they have to be there, but philosophically, they violate my basic principles of life.

Back in the early days of personal computers, there allegedly was a company that had its engineers remove bypass caps one by one until the motherboard stopped working. Then they’d add the last one back in and smile about the short-term cost savings. Well, that was a bad idea. The reality is that we need them.

I’ve written about some of the problems that can show up because of passives (or other small two lead parts like LEDs and other diodes). Like here, here and here. That last example has popped up recently and I have some more thoughts on it. Essentially, I’m talking about multiple two-lead components that have one lead tied together. That’s a pretty common scenario with bypass caps or LEDs (or the LED current limit resistor).

There are a couple of ways to do this. Some error prone and some not. First, the general rule of thumb for two lead passives is, if at all possible, to have the same amount of copper going into both sides. That means that if you have one 8 mil trace going to one pad, have one 8 mil trace going to the other. Also make sure that you have solder mask stopping the solder from going off pad.

Passively annoying bad way here is bad. It might just barely meet IPC standards, but it still is really not manufacturable. First, there are no thermals. That makes the solder melt much slower on the right side which can lead to unreliable solder joints or tombstoning.

Second, even though the theoretical solder mask openings don’t touch and the keep-out (it’s not shown but is just a hair narrower than the mask area) areas don’t touch, they are close enough that you might not have any mask between the parts on the thermal pad. That can lead to components shorting.

is also bad. You have your thermals in there so that’s good, but the parts are still so close together that you might not get any mask between them, leaving a path of bare copper between the parts that can cause them to drift around and mess things up.

Method B1, on the right here has the same issue. Likely no solder mask between the parts and a bare copper path between the parts.

Method C here is fine. The parts are still at risk of not having mask between them, but there isn’t bare copper running straight between them. There will be mask between the parts and the pad so there isn’t any way for solder to bridge or the parts to drift.

Method D here is also okay. You do need more room to spread the parts apart. That’s a bummer, but sometimes “bummer” is the cost of reliability. Here, there will be solder mask between the parts and there are thermals. Everything is happy.

Use method C if you have a little side to side room to play with or method D if you have a little top to bottom spare room.

Duane Benson
Prevent flanking maneuvers.
Don’t be like the Solders at Thermopylae

Whose Fault Is It, Anyway?

The change in administration at IPC will inevitably dredge up lots of the past as various factions position themselves for a seat at the table.

Those whom hew to the line that IPC’s emphasis over the past decade has shifted to the assembly market are correct: IPC followed the money, and since the massive shift of printed circuit board fabrication to Asia starting in late 2001, assembly has where the North American money has been.

But that assessment  just as inevitably turns to anger and blame — fingers get quickly pointed at IPC for somehow failing the domestic PCB market. I’m not sure that’s justified.

IPC’s interest in programs for fabricators has waned; of that, there is no doubt. But it has waned in large part because fabricators themselves stopped supporting those programs. The PWB Presidents Meetings and the TMRC are shells of their former selves, it says here, because the members stopped forcing the issue. Keep in mind, IPC has long followed a “build it and they will come” model. That’s not a good strategy for a trade association. But fabricators who abdicated leadership over the IPC share much of the responsibility for what it’s become. It’s not that the IPC board of directors no longer reflects the needs of small guys so much as it’s that the board no longer reflects the needs of the private owner, large or small. No one complained IPC wasn’t doing enough for fabricators when representatives from large fabs like Photocircuits were on the board.

Could IPC provide better direction for the North American fabrication industry? Yes. But the Chinese have done just fine without the help of a strong domestic association. Given that, it’s hard to argue that IPC was the cause of the decline. Back in 2000, when the forecasts for high layer count boards were staggeringly optimistic for the foreseeable future, old friend Jack Fisher lamented that it would keep the domestic industry from investing in HDI for another couple years. He was right: none did. Then the bottom fell out, and none of them had the cash to invest in the newer technology, thus relegating them to third tier status. As one who participated in the IPC Technology Roadmap going back to its first incarnation, I can say microvias were clearly expected to take hold. In that respect, the IPC did its part; the industry just didn’t follow.

It’s uncomfortable to admit we got beat, and no, the playing field with China has never been level, and yes, IPC’s lobbying and related activities have been confused and ineffective, but there’s plenty of blame to go around, and not all of it was a trade group’s fault. We’d all be better off, I think, to focus on the needs of the future rather than the sins of the past.

New CEO Mitchell Breathing Life in IPC

The early feedback is that new IPC CEO John Mitchell has brought a much-needed breath of fresh air to an organization that had lost its drive and character after 11 years under the previous regime.

Among the early changes include a recognition that IPC has become out of touch with many segments of its membership. Designers were so disenchanted, a group of the Designers Council leaders were preparing to bolt the organization altogether. Fabricators’ antipathy toward IPC is well-documented and may even run deeper, as many smaller and private shops have long since labeled IPC as disinterested in their concerns. Even some assembly equipment suppliers have shared concerns over the standards process and perceived biases toward certain groups.

Much of that is turning around under Mitchell. He has moved quickly to make the rounds of various constituents, and in a departure from his predecessor, has not relied on staff to vet member opinions. He has begun to shed some of the entrenched “lifers” who had alienated too much of the membership to continue in their roles. And he has made clear, according to sources, that the staff focus going forward needs to be on the members, which is a long overdue switch from a decade of “Is It Good for the IPC?”*

Further, he is repositioning the organization to better reflect the way the industry is structured. One new division is simply called Member Success, which he describes as a group of functions (membership, member support, events and industry councils and market research) “focused on helping our members be more successful and taking an active role in helping them more fully benefit from their IPC membership.” Most of these areas had grown stagnant to the point of calcification. One of the problems many had identified with IPC is that it existed as much (or more) to ensure its own success but had lost its vision on how to improve members’ profitability. Recognizing that the onus needs to be on IPC to help its members (and not the other way around) is a long overdue and welcome shot in the arm.

Dave Torp, whom many feel is a talented but marginalized asset, is now clearly in charge of the technology and training programs, a role where his background in engineering at Rockwell Collins and sales and marketing at Kester will truly help him excel.

There is a renewed interest in Public Policy, which will in the future coordinate with Brussels and Beijing (and perhaps other key spots). IPC plans hire a new vice president for this space, a sign that it needs fresh input and energy if it plans on making a difference with the legislative branch.

Mitchell seems highly motivated to invest in IPC’s international operations, a space where the trade group’s board had been critical of the previous president for moving at a glacial pace. To that end, IPC is casting about for a president of its China organization, a smart move and a tacit nod that in Asia, titles mean something, and the approach of using a middle manager with no real authority was not working. It says here that if vice president Dave Bergman stays on, he should move to Shanghai, where his experience at IPC (30 years) could better be put to use.

One very smart move was to create a Special Projects function, which allows IPC to look at new or short-term initiatives without distracting staff from the core functions.” We see this as wise because new projects often either sap all the attention and resources from important but functioning efforts, thus potentially leaving those programs to wither, or vice versa, attending to existing programs can act as a excuse for letting new efforts simply dangle. Mitchell has brought on a former colleague named Ed Trackman to run this area.

IPC holds a critical place in the electronics supply chain, but that spot had slowly been eroding over the years. It’s early, and the proof will be in the results, but based on several conversations with IPC members who are much happier today than I’ve seen them in years, Mitchell appears the right person for the job.

*With apologies to Office Space.