Is the IEC Electronics story the comeback of the decade or a disaster in waiting? Some thoughts here.
Author Archives: Mike
If the Printer Fitts
Longtime readers and designers who remember Mike Fitts might wonder what’s he’s been up to of late.
As it turns out, Fitts is part of a Colorado company that has developed a low-cost 3-D plastics printer aimed at hobbyists, business owners and entrepreneurs.
No word on whether he can someday mold his own drum set.
Whose Fault Is It, Anyway?
The change in administration at IPC will inevitably dredge up lots of the past as various factions position themselves for a seat at the table.
Those whom hew to the line that IPC’s emphasis over the past decade has shifted to the assembly market are correct: IPC followed the money, and since the massive shift of printed circuit board fabrication to Asia starting in late 2001, assembly has where the North American money has been.
But that assessment just as inevitably turns to anger and blame — fingers get quickly pointed at IPC for somehow failing the domestic PCB market. I’m not sure that’s justified.
IPC’s interest in programs for fabricators has waned; of that, there is no doubt. But it has waned in large part because fabricators themselves stopped supporting those programs. The PWB Presidents Meetings and the TMRC are shells of their former selves, it says here, because the members stopped forcing the issue. Keep in mind, IPC has long followed a “build it and they will come” model. That’s not a good strategy for a trade association. But fabricators who abdicated leadership over the IPC share much of the responsibility for what it’s become. It’s not that the IPC board of directors no longer reflects the needs of small guys so much as it’s that the board no longer reflects the needs of the private owner, large or small. No one complained IPC wasn’t doing enough for fabricators when representatives from large fabs like Photocircuits were on the board.
Could IPC provide better direction for the North American fabrication industry? Yes. But the Chinese have done just fine without the help of a strong domestic association. Given that, it’s hard to argue that IPC was the cause of the decline. Back in 2000, when the forecasts for high layer count boards were staggeringly optimistic for the foreseeable future, old friend Jack Fisher lamented that it would keep the domestic industry from investing in HDI for another couple years. He was right: none did. Then the bottom fell out, and none of them had the cash to invest in the newer technology, thus relegating them to third tier status. As one who participated in the IPC Technology Roadmap going back to its first incarnation, I can say microvias were clearly expected to take hold. In that respect, the IPC did its part; the industry just didn’t follow.
It’s uncomfortable to admit we got beat, and no, the playing field with China has never been level, and yes, IPC’s lobbying and related activities have been confused and ineffective, but there’s plenty of blame to go around, and not all of it was a trade group’s fault. We’d all be better off, I think, to focus on the needs of the future rather than the sins of the past.
Dark Cloud
Cloud computing advocates beware: Apple’s cofounder thinks you’re nuts.
Holding forth in Washington last week, Steve (Woz) Wozniak said, ” ‘I really worry about everything going to the cloud. I think it’s going to be horrendous. … With the cloud, you don’t own anything. You already signed it away’ through the legalistic terms of service with a cloud provider that computer users must agree to.”
I will admit to not being familiar with all the various cloud IP agreements. But if the Woz is correct, this does suggest a serious wrinkle for those who see the cloud as a panacea.
New CEO Mitchell Breathing Life in IPC
The early feedback is that new IPC CEO John Mitchell has brought a much-needed breath of fresh air to an organization that had lost its drive and character after 11 years under the previous regime.
Among the early changes include a recognition that IPC has become out of touch with many segments of its membership. Designers were so disenchanted, a group of the Designers Council leaders were preparing to bolt the organization altogether. Fabricators’ antipathy toward IPC is well-documented and may even run deeper, as many smaller and private shops have long since labeled IPC as disinterested in their concerns. Even some assembly equipment suppliers have shared concerns over the standards process and perceived biases toward certain groups.
Much of that is turning around under Mitchell. He has moved quickly to make the rounds of various constituents, and in a departure from his predecessor, has not relied on staff to vet member opinions. He has begun to shed some of the entrenched “lifers” who had alienated too much of the membership to continue in their roles. And he has made clear, according to sources, that the staff focus going forward needs to be on the members, which is a long overdue switch from a decade of “Is It Good for the IPC?”*
Further, he is repositioning the organization to better reflect the way the industry is structured. One new division is simply called Member Success, which he describes as a group of functions (membership, member support, events and industry councils and market research) “focused on helping our members be more successful and taking an active role in helping them more fully benefit from their IPC membership.” Most of these areas had grown stagnant to the point of calcification. One of the problems many had identified with IPC is that it existed as much (or more) to ensure its own success but had lost its vision on how to improve members’ profitability. Recognizing that the onus needs to be on IPC to help its members (and not the other way around) is a long overdue and welcome shot in the arm.
Dave Torp, whom many feel is a talented but marginalized asset, is now clearly in charge of the technology and training programs, a role where his background in engineering at Rockwell Collins and sales and marketing at Kester will truly help him excel.
There is a renewed interest in Public Policy, which will in the future coordinate with Brussels and Beijing (and perhaps other key spots). IPC plans hire a new vice president for this space, a sign that it needs fresh input and energy if it plans on making a difference with the legislative branch.
Mitchell seems highly motivated to invest in IPC’s international operations, a space where the trade group’s board had been critical of the previous president for moving at a glacial pace. To that end, IPC is casting about for a president of its China organization, a smart move and a tacit nod that in Asia, titles mean something, and the approach of using a middle manager with no real authority was not working. It says here that if vice president Dave Bergman stays on, he should move to Shanghai, where his experience at IPC (30 years) could better be put to use.
One very smart move was to create a Special Projects function, which allows IPC to look at new or short-term initiatives without distracting staff from the core functions.” We see this as wise because new projects often either sap all the attention and resources from important but functioning efforts, thus potentially leaving those programs to wither, or vice versa, attending to existing programs can act as a excuse for letting new efforts simply dangle. Mitchell has brought on a former colleague named Ed Trackman to run this area.
IPC holds a critical place in the electronics supply chain, but that spot had slowly been eroding over the years. It’s early, and the proof will be in the results, but based on several conversations with IPC members who are much happier today than I’ve seen them in years, Mitchell appears the right person for the job.
*With apologies to Office Space.
India Goes Dark
Some 300 million Indians are without power today as no fewer than six states there lost power for an extended period of time. Add this to the growing list of recent potential and real supply-chain disruptions. There are at least 80 EMS companies affected by the outages, based on the number of entries in the CIRCUITS ASSEMBLY Directory of EMS Companies.
While the extended length of this weekend’s outage was an exception, according to Reuters, “blackouts lasting up to eight hours a day are frequent in much of the country.”
This is not to say that companies shouldn’t manufacture in India. However, the national power concerns should be a consideration for those who choose to put all their eggs in one (offshore) basket. Spread the risk.
Welcome, New Readers
Today we start welcoming readers from another blog we run called Laying It Out. We’ve imported the blog posts from the past several years to this site, and readers are able to sort all the old (and new) postings from Laying It Out by Pete Waddell, Judy Warner and myself by clicking on the Laying It Out category.
Why the switch? We’ve realized that many readers were using both blogs because some of the content on the Hot Wires blog overlapped quite a bit with the design and fabrication segment (Duane Benson, I’m looking at you!). Merging all the content into one space should save all of us some time each day.
Thanks for reading!
No Rest for EMS
Look out Apple — Foxconn is encroaching on your turf.
The company, which already boasts a chain of retail outlets, plans to expand into everything from software apps to a broadband satellite network. Much like Verizon, Comcast and others in the US, the EMS firm is working with local municipalities to build out the network.
Moreover, it has big plans to develop apps for smartphones, tablets and TV.
EMS companies don’t stand still. They can’t make money making solder joints. OEMs that want to protect their future should reconsider the extent to which they should be enabling their suppliers.
Another Tidal Wave Hits Japan
Old friend Dominque Numakura comes back from the annual JPCA Show with a stunning announcement: Japan’s PCB industry seems to be on life support.
From a series of dull presentations to the outsourcing of manufacturing to a general lack of optimism, the mood is dour, Numakura says. More ominous, some veterans are comparing the trend to the decimation of the US PCB industry in late 2001.
As late as 2000, the US and Japan were neck-and-neck in annual PCB sales, with the US dominating the large board space and Japan leading in HDI. Despite the problems experienced in the US, Japan continued to be the technology leader in PCBs, leading some to surmise that its vast investment and wise decisions on which technologies to focus on made Japan impervious to the cost pressures that sunk the North American industry. Numakura’s essay suggest that’s not the case, leaving one to wonder what this means for the circuit board industry for the coming decade.
Cracks in the BRIC
BRIC is the acronym that stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China. Those four nations are seen as most significant of the emerging industrial economies.
They are also learning each other’s tricks — and fast.
China has long insisted that MNCs that want to win cash-rich contracts to build out that nation’s infrastructure come prepared to share that technology with its local contractors. Call it mandatory tech transfer.
Well, Brazil, it appears, is taking the same approach. The country, reports the Wall Street Journal, is holding back more than a billion dollars in financing until Foxconn International Holdings agrees to bring its latest LCD technology to its planned factory in Minas Gerais.
All’s fair in love and trade, I suppose.