DEK’d Out

Great chat with Michael Brianda, president of DEK, at Productronica. Some good insights on the state of the solar market, adding dispensing to the printer, and the franchising of stencil cutting.

Will have the full interview up later today.

Productronica, Day 1

Initial thoughts from Productronica:

Traffic was a bit slow relative to past years. The show itself seems smaller — and again, this is relative, as it remains bigger than almost all the other major electronics assembly trade shows combined — with traditional powerhouses like Siemens, Universal Instruments and other placement companies occupying booths that, while they would still qualify as monstrous at any other show, no longer fill entire halls on their own. (This is a good thing.)

Assembleon introduced its iFlex placement line, consisting of two multifunctional (with up to eight heads each) machines and a high-speed chipshooter. The dual-lane line uses the same feeders as the A series, is well-priced for all regions and is said to be capable of 400 cph placement speeds and less than 10 defects per million.

Speaking of Assembleon, the company reupped its licensing agreement with Yamaha, which, according to CIRCUITS ASSEMBLY sources, is for one year with a one year option. We saw Scott Zerkle, the new GM of Yamaha IM America.

Other products of note on Day 1:

  • Juki introduced multiple lines and made upgrades to several others, including a new vision system (called Sentry), which combine multiple cameras in the pick-and-place head with an integrated AOI, all of which reportedly require no additional programming time. Also on display was the JX series of low-cost high-speed placement machines; the JX-200 features a high-resolution camera for vision placement.
  • Kyzen debuted  the E5321 alkaline cleaner for pallets and general maintenance.
  • Speedprint added a glue and paste dispenser to its SP 710 printer.
  • Goepel’s Opticon AOI can handle up to 32 devices under test simultaneously.

Notes:

  • Chris Fussner, whom readers will remember from TransTechnology, is setting up a US division.
  • Aqueous Technologies CEO Mike Konrad says 85% of its customers are cleaning no-clean flux.
  • News out of Bangkok is that the flooding was so bad, some factories are soaked even on their second floors. Expect a big wave of new machines to replace the thousands lost in the flood.
  • The big drop in the solar market will claim many victims. Some folks think, once all the bloodletting is over, there will be only a handful of companies left. Others aren’t so dire, but the clear consensus is that there is tremendous overcapacity in solar (estimates run north of 35%) and that it will be two to three years before demand and supply reach equilibrium again.
  • Most equipment advances seen so far are evolutionary, with incremental improvements in speed and accuracy.

 

Why DfM?

Design for manufacture is the practice of designing board products that can be produced in a cost-effective manner using existing manufacturing processes and equipment. — Ray Prasad

I’ve mentioned before that one of my early design gurus gave me a piece of advice that stayed with me throughout my design career. He said that after I finished a drawing or design, I should stand back and ask myself if I could build the product from the information I was providing. Well, to do that I had to know how the product would be built and the processes involved in manufacturing the product. Fortunately I was raised in a fabrication environment and had a fair knowledge of metal fabrication.

But when I started designing PCBs, I didn’t have the luxury of being around a PCB fab shop, where I could spend time with people who built the boards. I had to depend on other designers who had a wealth of knowledge about PCB fabrication.

Several years later, I worked for a couple companies that not only did design work but also had a board shop. Any time I had a question about something, I could walk over to the board shop and get some on-the-job schooling. The folks there would not only tell me what I needed to do to make the job more manufacturable, they’d walk me down the line and show me the whats and whys. I can’t help but think that this made me a better designer. I know that it gave me a better understanding of how the things that I was doing in a design affected every step and downstream process.

Over the years since I became involved in the magazine and conference side of PCBs, I’ve stressed the importance of DfM and the manufacturing process. We made it a significant part of the message and information in everything we produced, including the magazine, conferences and in later years, our websites. But DfM is still one of the major issues in the PCB design world. With the compartmentalization and outsourcing common today, it may be more difficult to get out to the board shop that builds our boards.

However, it is doable. Even when – for whatever reason – it isn’t feasible, designers and engineers need to know everything possible about board fabrication and assembly. So we keep running articles in the magazine and doing sessions at PCB West on DfM. We’re also working on some in-depth DFM courses for Printed Circuit University (PCU). In fact, we just loaded a video on PCU called Why DFM? that is available to all PCU members. (Membership is free.) In the video, Darren Hitchcock of Multek talks about some basic issues about which every designer should know. It is just a part of our effort to get every designer educated on DfM and other subjects relating to PCBs. Visit PCU today to see for yourself.

p.

Through-Hole to SMT

Thanks to a comment from Michael yesterday, I think everything is now cool with my Geiger counter. I had left the AT2313 default fuse setting at clock/8. That dropped the RS232 speed from 9600 to 1200 and it made the clicking sound into more of a tone, which just didn’t sound right for a Geiger counter. I still need a good radiation source though. I think I’ve picked up just a few clicks of background radiation, but that could just be wishful thinking.

Wishful thinking or not, that’s not the point. The point is that this was an example of migrating from through-hole parts to SMT. I managed to get virtually everything into SMT. The connectors, the power switch, the buzzer, batter holder and fuse clips for the tube stayed through-hole. Although I’m sure I could have all but the battery holder and fuse clips into SMT had I wanted to. I tend to keep switches and connectors that will get a lot of use as through-hole just for the extra staying power. If they aren’t used frequently, then SMT is just fine.

There are a number of things to consider when switching from thru-hole to SMT:

  1. Everything is smaller, so you can fit more in the same space or the same in less space. I took advantage of the extra board area to add in a RS232 line driver so I could connect directly to a serial port. I also added in a power-on LED.
  2. Everything is smaller so your layout is more critical. Most PCB houses will build 8mil trace and space as standard process these days. That gives you a lot of flexibility in squeezing your routing into tight areas, but it doesn’t give complete freedom. You have to be core careful because you frequently do have to route a bunch of traces into a pretty small area. When you get into the really fine pitch parts, like 0.5 or 0.4mm center to center, you have to be extra careful.
  3. Some parts are dimensioned in metric and some in SAE units. If all are one way or the other, it’s easy. But when you’ve got both, you may have to tweak with your grid spacing off and on to make sure your traces are centered in the SMT pads they connect to. It usually isn’t a horrible problem, but it can make even spacing more difficult and can make you more likely to violate a design rule.
  4. You don’t have automatic “vias” on each component leg so routing can be more difficult. You’ll likely have to spend more time tweaking the part locations and the trace routing to get a decent layout. A lot of times everything’s too close so it’s not practical to just plant a lot of vias all over.
  5. Hand soldering is less or not practical. Some people do hand solder some pretty tiny parts, but it’s not practical in more than isolated cases. If you’re a hobbyist or on a tight budget, this might limit you to through-hole or some of the largest SMT parts. For commercial work though, SMT is the way to go.

Some things to think about. But what do you get in return? Typically lower cost – especially if you want your design to go into volume manufacturing. You also get access to the newest parts that only come in SMT packages. And, many designs are space constrained, so you can cram more in while still keeping your board size down.

Duane Benson
I shot a neutrino into the air
And where it landed I already knew

 

Killer ‘Crap’

Harvard historian/condescending bore Niall Ferguson claims in this interview with the Wall Street Journal that six institutions (aka “killer aps”) were responsible for the West dominating the East, and attempts to describe how that ground has shifted.

He ticks off as reasons competition, science, rule of law (private property rights), medicine, the consumer society, and work ethic, and claims the West is ignoring the massive changes coming.

Ferguson’s argument falls down in many places, however. He downplays or fails to note the myriad central issues that could slow or stop China’s rise, such as the slow, steady poisoning of its own people through blatant pollution; the double and triple redundancy in which China is building out its infrastructure capacity despite pitiful demand; the staggering (and growing) economic disparity between the haves and have-nots; the lack of a fair and vigorous legal system; the lack of a free press; its aging society (with its inherent staggering medical costs) and other obvious disadvantages. Yet understanding and adapting these “killer aps” have been just as integral to the rise of Western society.

China, as every “economic historian” should know, has undergone internal revolutions about every four decades. It is not a single, homogeneous*s society. It is a large, disparate nation full of local tribes, most of which are very wary of government. I don’t know whether Ferguson spent time watching the events in the Middle East this year, but if hs has, he knows that citizens who are systematically deprived sooner or later get royally ticked off. The pattern of history leads to democracy, which China most decidedly is not. While Ferguson takes analysts to task for not looking at the reasons behind the “collapse” of the West, he is disingenuous in not critically reviewing the shortcomings of the East.

He asserts that globalization, not Wall Street, has been the source for pain inflicted on low-income US workers, but fails to explain why that same globalization hasn’t broadly helped workers in the East. His take on work ethic is just plain silly: It suggests that the Chinese didn’t work hard in 1600-1900s, and that played into their poverty.

And his take on the perceived stability of the Soviet Union before its collapse is completely wrong – every US President starting with Truman predicted that if the US kept the pressure on, the USSR would fold under its own lousy model. And that’s exactly what happened.

Let’s consider one other aspect: The East has risen because the West poured money into it. Such resources are dynamic and can – and do – migrate. China is attractive to Western investors because of its low cost labor and potential for large consumer appetites. Western companies are not, however, emotionally invested in China. It’s simply one vehicle to wealth, and there are many other cars from which to choose.

In the end, it seems Ferguson misses the points both small and large. In trying to explain why the West beat the East during the past few centuries, he attempts to channel badly, Dr. Jared Diamond, the UCLA professor who in the 1990s dissected the same economic differences by showing why certain technology organically grew in some places and not others. If you are looking for such insight, stick with Diamond.

Thai Floods’ Hidden Asset

In a perverse way, the flooding in Thailand might have a hidden benefit — it could help boost pricing in a way the market otherwise would never allow.

Seagate today said as much in an SEC 8-k filing. The HDD maker noted the severity of disruption the floods have wrought on the hard drive supply chain, causing it to project total industry shipments of 110 million to 120 million units for the quarter. That’s in line with IHS iSuppli’s forecast of a 28% year-over-year drop. Better rethink gifting a  PC for Christmas.

But there quite possibly a silver lining. When capacity is reduced and demand is constant, prices rise. Deutsche Bank senior analyst Sherri Scribner said as much today, noting “Despite the significant shortfall in total available market this quarter, we believe Seagate and the industry will see a gross margin benefit from HDD supply disruptions. As we have already begun to see in the channel, limited availability of HDDs is driving prices higher and pricing is the primary driver of gross margins.”

She also points out that the effect will be lingering, as HDD pricing is set based on prior quarter prices.

We saw this a few years ago, when a fire at ASE in Taiwan took an estimated 10% of the world’s flip-chip capacity offline and pushed up prices and delivery times for several quarters.

The electronics supply chain has long been in dire need of a little inflation. This could help.

Fixing the Fakes

The US Senate Armed Forces Subcommittee may finally be taking the counterfeit problem seriously.

The subcommittee will hold a hearing next week to share results of an investigation into the development and procurement of fake chips for military use. This is long overdue, of course. The government’s own auditors have been pointing out just how widespread the problem is. It came to a head in 2008 when technicians working on an F-15 flight computer at Robins Air Force Base discovered four replacement semiconductor chips were fake. The legal trail traced the parts to a site in Shenzhen, and US courts extracted a guilty plea from one officer at the local distributor who resold the parts. (The owner committed suicide while awaiting trial.)

That the government is at long last getting involved is a welcome, if overdue change. This is one of those areas where an effective IPC government relations team could really have an impact. Instead of tilting at accelerated depreciation windmills which are better left to the big boys, this is a nitty-gritty technical issue with chilling overtones. All the conferences around the country are nice (and make money), but the real work requires pounding the pavement in Washington.

The Chinese Diaspora

In what might be the most fascinating labor development to come out of China this year, major ODMs are relocating workers west due to labor shortages.

One major reason companies in Shenzhen packed up their factories and moved inland (with the government’s blessing) was to chase a larger supply of lower-cost workers. Shenzhen had become too expensive, and migrants from the western farms were no longer so eager to move to the Southeast coast to take jobs. The diaspora was supposed to resolve both

But today the news out of China is much different. Quanta Computer and Compal Electronics reportedly have moved employees from east to west to support factories in Chongqing City, a municipality with a population of more than 28 million (!), due to short labor supplies.

Even in a country of 1.3 billion people, cheap, effective workers apparently are hard to come by.

The Chinese Diaspora

In what might be the most fascinating labor development to come out of China this year, major ODMs are relocating workers west due to labor shortages.

One major reason companies in Shenzhen packed up their factories and moved inland (with the government’s blessing) was to chase a larger supply of lower-cost workers. Shenzhen had become too expensive, and migrants from the western farms were no longer so eager to move to the Southeast coast to take jobs. The diaspora was supposed to resolve both

But today the news out of China is much different. Quanta Computer and Compal Electronics reportedly have moved employees from east to west to support factories in Chongqing City, a municipality with a population of more than 28 million (!), due to short labor supplies.

Even in a country of 1.3 billion people, cheap, effective workers apparently are hard to come by.

Flood Pains

Bangkok is responsible for 40% of Thailand GDP.

Which makes it all the more painful to recall this World Bank report from last year, in which the agency said rising temperatures and sea levels will increase risk of floods in Bangkok fourfold by 2050.

Most of the Top 10 EMS companies have operations in Thailand, and Cal-Comp (no. 6) and Fabrinet (no. 19) have most of their production there. It’s a major center for automotive production and, of course, a leading site for hard disk drives.

It’s also yet another reminder that access to cheap labor is only one component in the decision on  where to locate supply chains.