About Mike

Mike Buetow is president of the Printed Circuit Engineering Association (pcea.net). He previously was editor-in-chief of Circuits Assembly magazine, the leading publication for electronics manufacturing, and PCD&F, the leading publication for printed circuit design and fabrication. He spent 21 years as vice president and editorial director of UP Media Group, for which he oversaw all editorial and production aspects. He has more than 30 years' experience in the electronics industry, including six years at IPC, an electronics trade association, at which he was a technical projects manager and communications director. He has also held editorial positions at SMT Magazine, community newspapers and in book publishing. He is a graduate of the University of Illinois. Follow Mike on Twitter: @mikebuetow

Killer ‘Crap’

Harvard historian/condescending bore Niall Ferguson claims in this interview with the Wall Street Journal that six institutions (aka “killer aps”) were responsible for the West dominating the East, and attempts to describe how that ground has shifted.

He ticks off as reasons competition, science, rule of law (private property rights), medicine, the consumer society, and work ethic, and claims the West is ignoring the massive changes coming.

Ferguson’s argument falls down in many places, however. He downplays or fails to note the myriad central issues that could slow or stop China’s rise, such as the slow, steady poisoning of its own people through blatant pollution; the double and triple redundancy in which China is building out its infrastructure capacity despite pitiful demand; the staggering (and growing) economic disparity between the haves and have-nots; the lack of a fair and vigorous legal system; the lack of a free press; its aging society (with its inherent staggering medical costs) and other obvious disadvantages. Yet understanding and adapting these “killer aps” have been just as integral to the rise of Western society.

China, as every “economic historian” should know, has undergone internal revolutions about every four decades. It is not a single, homogeneous*s society. It is a large, disparate nation full of local tribes, most of which are very wary of government. I don’t know whether Ferguson spent time watching the events in the Middle East this year, but if hs has, he knows that citizens who are systematically deprived sooner or later get royally ticked off. The pattern of history leads to democracy, which China most decidedly is not. While Ferguson takes analysts to task for not looking at the reasons behind the “collapse” of the West, he is disingenuous in not critically reviewing the shortcomings of the East.

He asserts that globalization, not Wall Street, has been the source for pain inflicted on low-income US workers, but fails to explain why that same globalization hasn’t broadly helped workers in the East. His take on work ethic is just plain silly: It suggests that the Chinese didn’t work hard in 1600-1900s, and that played into their poverty.

And his take on the perceived stability of the Soviet Union before its collapse is completely wrong – every US President starting with Truman predicted that if the US kept the pressure on, the USSR would fold under its own lousy model. And that’s exactly what happened.

Let’s consider one other aspect: The East has risen because the West poured money into it. Such resources are dynamic and can – and do – migrate. China is attractive to Western investors because of its low cost labor and potential for large consumer appetites. Western companies are not, however, emotionally invested in China. It’s simply one vehicle to wealth, and there are many other cars from which to choose.

In the end, it seems Ferguson misses the points both small and large. In trying to explain why the West beat the East during the past few centuries, he attempts to channel badly, Dr. Jared Diamond, the UCLA professor who in the 1990s dissected the same economic differences by showing why certain technology organically grew in some places and not others. If you are looking for such insight, stick with Diamond.

Thai Floods’ Hidden Asset

In a perverse way, the flooding in Thailand might have a hidden benefit — it could help boost pricing in a way the market otherwise would never allow.

Seagate today said as much in an SEC 8-k filing. The HDD maker noted the severity of disruption the floods have wrought on the hard drive supply chain, causing it to project total industry shipments of 110 million to 120 million units for the quarter. That’s in line with IHS iSuppli’s forecast of a 28% year-over-year drop. Better rethink gifting a  PC for Christmas.

But there quite possibly a silver lining. When capacity is reduced and demand is constant, prices rise. Deutsche Bank senior analyst Sherri Scribner said as much today, noting “Despite the significant shortfall in total available market this quarter, we believe Seagate and the industry will see a gross margin benefit from HDD supply disruptions. As we have already begun to see in the channel, limited availability of HDDs is driving prices higher and pricing is the primary driver of gross margins.”

She also points out that the effect will be lingering, as HDD pricing is set based on prior quarter prices.

We saw this a few years ago, when a fire at ASE in Taiwan took an estimated 10% of the world’s flip-chip capacity offline and pushed up prices and delivery times for several quarters.

The electronics supply chain has long been in dire need of a little inflation. This could help.

Isola’s IPO

Isola is going public.

No big surprise there, except for 1) it is about six years later than I would have first thought and 2) November 2011 is not exactly the peak of the IPO craze.

Although I have known Ray Sharpe, Isola’s CEO, since his days at Alpha Metals (almost two decades ago), I haven’t yet spoken to him about the decision. That said, I would guess that Isola feels the next 12 months could be rocky. The company has blown the doors off so far in 2011, and perhaps they think they should strike while that iron is hot.

Moreover, if 2012 sinks, then they might need the cash from the IPO to help cover the downturn. I can’t see TPG wanting to put more of its own capital in.

Isola was the largest laminate maker to be privately held. This is a big story.

Fixing the Fakes

The US Senate Armed Forces Subcommittee may finally be taking the counterfeit problem seriously.

The subcommittee will hold a hearing next week to share results of an investigation into the development and procurement of fake chips for military use. This is long overdue, of course. The government’s own auditors have been pointing out just how widespread the problem is. It came to a head in 2008 when technicians working on an F-15 flight computer at Robins Air Force Base discovered four replacement semiconductor chips were fake. The legal trail traced the parts to a site in Shenzhen, and US courts extracted a guilty plea from one officer at the local distributor who resold the parts. (The owner committed suicide while awaiting trial.)

That the government is at long last getting involved is a welcome, if overdue change. This is one of those areas where an effective IPC government relations team could really have an impact. Instead of tilting at accelerated depreciation windmills which are better left to the big boys, this is a nitty-gritty technical issue with chilling overtones. All the conferences around the country are nice (and make money), but the real work requires pounding the pavement in Washington.

The Chinese Diaspora

In what might be the most fascinating labor development to come out of China this year, major ODMs are relocating workers west due to labor shortages.

One major reason companies in Shenzhen packed up their factories and moved inland (with the government’s blessing) was to chase a larger supply of lower-cost workers. Shenzhen had become too expensive, and migrants from the western farms were no longer so eager to move to the Southeast coast to take jobs. The diaspora was supposed to resolve both

But today the news out of China is much different. Quanta Computer and Compal Electronics reportedly have moved employees from east to west to support factories in Chongqing City, a municipality with a population of more than 28 million (!), due to short labor supplies.

Even in a country of 1.3 billion people, cheap, effective workers apparently are hard to come by.

The Chinese Diaspora

In what might be the most fascinating labor development to come out of China this year, major ODMs are relocating workers west due to labor shortages.

One major reason companies in Shenzhen packed up their factories and moved inland (with the government’s blessing) was to chase a larger supply of lower-cost workers. Shenzhen had become too expensive, and migrants from the western farms were no longer so eager to move to the Southeast coast to take jobs. The diaspora was supposed to resolve both

But today the news out of China is much different. Quanta Computer and Compal Electronics reportedly have moved employees from east to west to support factories in Chongqing City, a municipality with a population of more than 28 million (!), due to short labor supplies.

Even in a country of 1.3 billion people, cheap, effective workers apparently are hard to come by.

Flood Pains

Bangkok is responsible for 40% of Thailand GDP.

Which makes it all the more painful to recall this World Bank report from last year, in which the agency said rising temperatures and sea levels will increase risk of floods in Bangkok fourfold by 2050.

Most of the Top 10 EMS companies have operations in Thailand, and Cal-Comp (no. 6) and Fabrinet (no. 19) have most of their production there. It’s a major center for automotive production and, of course, a leading site for hard disk drives.

It’s also yet another reminder that access to cheap labor is only one component in the decision on  where to locate supply chains.

Boston Bulls

To the list of those bullish on the prospects for US manufacturing, add the Boston Consulting Group.

The consultancy group has issued a report that, in essence, gives China about five years before the gap between the two nations is closed.

The report contains few surprises. BCG points to steady increases in China’s wage rates and logistical costs, coupled with higher productivity in the US, as reasons for its optimism. Automation in China will have a deleterious affect on manufacturing there, as it will further reduce any labor rate advantage.

Moreover, any shift to other lower-cost nations such as Vietnam or Brmitl will be mitigated in part by those nations’ weaker infrastructures.

Pointing to past successes in fending off Taiwan and Japan, BCG says that US manufacturing sector in well into a period of adjustment and retrenchment, and “conditions are coalescing” for another American factory resurgence.

Worth a read.

Pay to Work

Here’s fodder for those who believe government should stay out of the “job creation” business. In the past few years one Florida county gave tens of millions in direct funding and tax breaks to a series of companies that are now accused of not having delivered on their employment promises. It’s not clear from the news item, but it appears one of the companies — Jabil — never lived up to its job guarantees and the state is now trying to renegotiate the contract.