What’s Ahead

It’s a slowdown, but not a meltdown.

That’s what Sherri Scribner from Deutsche Bank is forecasting for the second half of 2011.

In a research note today, she says their checks suggest “near-term demand is slightly softer than prior expectations, although weakness in telecom, networking, servers and storage had been well telegraphed heading into the quarter.” Optical appears “stalled” due to overinventories but second-half forecasts are strong.

Most companies have not been hurt by Japan, and even automotive is expected to “recover significantly” later this year, she writes.

My concern with all this is that for the past decade, slowdowns in EMS have been dramatic, not soft. We have lived through boom-bust cycles since 1995.

Not trying to be a pessimist here; just melding the data with the history.

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About Mike

Mike Buetow is president of the Printed Circuit Engineering Association (pcea.net). He previously was editor-in-chief of Circuits Assembly magazine, the leading publication for electronics manufacturing, and PCD&F, the leading publication for printed circuit design and fabrication. He spent 21 years as vice president and editorial director of UP Media Group, for which he oversaw all editorial and production aspects. He has more than 30 years' experience in the electronics industry, including six years at IPC, an electronics trade association, at which he was a technical projects manager and communications director. He has also held editorial positions at SMT Magazine, community newspapers and in book publishing. He is a graduate of the University of Illinois. Follow Mike on Twitter: @mikebuetow